As new roles are posted there, the status of the hiring process for each role is available. Using USAJOBS’ public API (Application Programming Interface), we created a list of every job that has been posted to the site since President Trump’s inauguration. We found that, as of mid-November 2025, of the over 73,000 posted jobs, a candidate was selected for only about 14,400 of them. While we do not know how many of those 14,400 workers actually had their first day on the job, the numbers illustrate the gap between the volume of jobs advertised and the progress towards filling them.
Furthermore, the 73,000 number tells us that despite downsizing efforts, many agencies feel they have an operational need for new employees.
The big question surrounding this entire issue is: Will the personnel cuts harm service delivery and confidence in government?
The patterns of rehiring in areas such as nuclear security and food safety indicate that the administration is aware of the potential for serious breakdowns that could jeopardize public safety and public health. Similarly, the effort to spare the FAA from downsizing suggests an awareness of the dangers posed by an understaffed air-traffic control operation.
In order to prove that the downsizing was worth the pain, the Trump administration will have to show that the government is still operating effectively. But much could go wrong. Nuclear mismanagement or airline accidents would be catastrophic. Late disaster warnings from agencies monitoring weather patterns, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and inadequate responses from bodies such as the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), could put people in danger. Inadequate staffing at the FBI could result in counter-terrorism failures. Reductions in vaccine uptake could lead to the resurgence of diseases such as polio and measles. Inadequate funding and staffing for research could cause scientists to move their talents abroad. Social Security databases could be compromised, throwing millions into chaos as they seek to prove their earnings records, and persistent customer service problems will reverberate through the senior and disability communities.
We may not have an accurate count of the Trump administration’s downsizing efforts until January 2029, when a new president takes office. It is possible that actual numbers will be less worrisome and that agencies will replace manpower with better technology, enabling more efficient service delivery. It is also possible that the federal government won’t have changed in size very much at all, or that a new crisis, such as a war or a pandemic, will result in a larger federal workforce.
But in the meantime, President Trump has to worry about potential meltdowns in government performance related to the rapid and aggressive downsizing his administration has pursued. As Harry Truman famously said in reference to the office of the president, “The buck stops here.” One of Trump’s ultimate legacies will be whether a downsized government leads to catastrophic breakdowns or increased efficiency.
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